This summer may not have broken the global heat record yet, but scientists warn that the most intense heat could still be ahead.
Wildfires are burning across parts of North America and Europe, powerful heat waves are striking cities, and ocean temperatures remain exceptionally high. At the same time, a strengthening El Niño is forecast to add more heat to an already warming planet.
So far, 2026 ranks as the third-hottest year on record, behind 2024 and 2025. But scientists say that could change as the year progresses.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth estimates there is now about a 35 percent chance that 2026 could overtake 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. Other scientists are even more confident, while NASA’s former climate scientist James Hansen has predicted that 2026 could finish slightly warmer than the current record year.
The world’s oceans are providing one of the clearest warning signs. More than 70 percent of Earth’s surface is covered by ocean, and sea-surface temperatures have remained extraordinarily high. Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service has reported widespread marine heat waves, with roughly 82 percent of the world’s ocean surface affected this year.
Scientists say the current heat cannot be blamed on El Niño alone. The climate pattern is only expected to have a stronger influence in the coming months. Instead, the extreme temperatures already being experienced around the world are largely the result of human-caused global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
El Niño could then add another burst of warmth.
The natural climate phenomenon occurs when unusually warm waters develop across parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That excess ocean heat can raise global temperatures and alter weather patterns around the world. With greenhouse gases having already pushed enormous amounts of heat into the oceans, scientists are watching the developing El Niño closely.
The combination of long-term global warming and a powerful El Niño could make the next several months particularly significant.
Heat waves are already becoming more frequent and widespread. Europe has experienced repeated episodes of extreme heat this summer, while severe temperatures have also affected North and South America and parts of Asia.
Scientists are especially concerned about nighttime temperatures. When evenings remain unusually hot, the human body has less opportunity to recover from daytime heat, increasing health risks and making sleep more difficult.
Researchers say the bigger picture is even more concerning. Even if 2026 does not become the hottest year ever recorded, scientists expect global temperatures to remain exceptionally high. Some predict that 2027 could surpass previous records by an even greater margin if the developing El Niño reaches the strength currently forecast.
The message from climate researchers is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: extreme heat is no longer simply a glimpse of a distant future. It is becoming a defining feature of the climate people are experiencing today.
A Hotter Planet Means Greater Risks for People and Nature
Rising global temperatures can affect far more than weather records. Prolonged heat can increase the risk of dehydration, heat-related illness, crop losses, drought, wildfires and water shortages, while warmer oceans place additional pressure on marine ecosystems. Preparing for extreme heat through better home cooling, efficient insulation, hydration, heat-safe outdoor practices and climate-resilient infrastructure is becoming increasingly important as communities face a warmer and more unpredictable climate.
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